Beschreibung
Inhaltsangabe:Abstract: The SADC Protocol on Trade lays the foundation for the planned free trade area in the SADC region. Its ratification is expected in the near future and therefore the question arises in how far the creation of the free trade area will affect the patterns of intraregional trade. After an examination of the framework of preferential and free trade agreements in the region this study employs a customised methodology based on Viner's theory of customs unions in order to identify those areas of trade that will be affected by trade creation or trade diversion effects. I have examined the trade creation and trade diversion potential of the most relevant goods for each of the twelve SADC countries, resolved to a 2 digit HS code level. These results were then put into relation to the overall macroeconomic situation in each country. There were a number of data problems that make the findings of this study less meaningful. However, to some extent this report can be seen as a best possible approximation and as a starting point for further and more detailed research. The overall findings can be summed up as follows: · South Africa is not going to be the only winner from the free trade area and especially its textile and clothing sector might suffer as a result. · There are virtually no trade creation and trade diversion effects to be expected for the BLNS countries but there is a good possibility of additional exports. Therefore, they are likely to profit the most. · Angola and Mozambique will probably experience the strongest trade creation and trade diversion effects. This will be triggered mainly by free trade with South Africa and the fact that their industrial base is very weak and has just started recovering. Zusammenfassung: Das SADC Handelsprotokoll ist die Grundlage für die geplante Freihandelszone in der SADC Region und wird voraussichtlich in Kürze ratifiziert. Es stellt sich daher die Frage, inwieweit sich die Schaffung dieser Freihandelszone auf den Handel innerhalb der Region auswirken wird. Nach einer Untersuchung der Handelsabkommen innerhalb der Region wird eine Methodik verwendet, die auf Viners Theorie der Zollunionen basiert, um jene Bereiche des regionalen Handels zu identifizieren, die von handelsschaffenden und handelsumlenkenden Effekten betroffen werden. Ich habe das Potential für handelsschaffende und handelsumlenkende Effekte der wichtigsten Güter, aufgeschlüsselt nach zweistelligen HS Codes, für alle []
